I am no economist, but bear with me while I try to explain why I think we are in for a very long and difficult economic period. My thesis for The Long Recession goes something like this: Historically, when oil prices rose quickly and remained high the economy struggled. High oil prices lead to recessions and depressions, because they suck so much money out of the economy. A person whose energy bills go up by $100 or $200 per month has that much less to spend on other things. It is essentially like a tax applied to everyone that uses energy — with a large chunk of the money exiting the U.S. and contributing to our trade deficit.

Historically after a period of high oil prices, people start to modify behaviors, and at the same time producers rush in to take advantage of higher prices. This generally leads to a decline in oil prices and the economy recovers. But I believe this time is different. And if not this cycle, very soon. Because while we are already seeing consumers modify behaviors (U.S. oil demand is creeping back up, but still below the levels of 2 years ago), we aren’t seeing a lot of new oil coming online “to the rescue.” The reason for that is that there just isn’t a lot of new oil to be produced; i.e., the Peak Oil factor. So despite the fact that prices did crash following fast the run-up in 2008, prices quickly recovered back into recession-inducing territory.

That leads me again and again to the question: How do you recover from a recession when oil prices are high and show no sign of abating? We could recover from recession if demand drops a bit more and takes oil prices down. But, what happens when we start to come out of the recession? We use more oil, and if there are supply constraints this will send prices right back into recession country.

Today comes more bad economic news, and like much of the bad economic news makes zero mention of the role of high oil prices:

Downward revision of GDP growth a strong signal of stalled recovery

Second-quarter economic growth was revised to an anemic 1.6%, a decline that was slightly less than many economists had predicted. But the report was a sobering cap to a week of bad economic news that has raised fears the nation could plunge into another recession. Bernanke says the Fed is ready to step in to provide additional stimulus.

What I continue to forecast is a very difficult economic period in which we start to power down or continue to suffer the economic consequences. I don’t believe future economic cycles are going to look like those of the past 100 years because of oil supply constraints. I believe we are looking at an extended period of (at best) no-growth or very little growth. At some point, there are alternatives that will begin to fill a respectable gap, but I think that oil price point is back up over $100/bbl.

No doubt the housing crises was a major contributor to our current economic predicament, but even if we miraculously recover from that the oil price risk still hangs repressively over us. So while I appreciate that It’s the economy, stupid and the economic indicators get all the news, I believe the reason we are in for prolonged economic bad news is “It’s the oil, stupid.”

Signs of Recovery

While it will only be with years of hindsight that we can determine the total environmental impact of the Macondo blowout in the Gulf of Mexico, there are encouraging signs that the environmental devastation will be less severe than many had feared. Today a reader sent me this encouraging story:

Oil spill area coming back to life

More than a dozen scientists interviewed by The Associated Press say the marsh here and across the Louisiana coast is healing itself, giving them hope delicate wetlands might weather the worst offshore spill in US history better than they had feared.

Some marshland could be lost, but the amount appears to be small compared with what the coast loses every year through human development.

Irving A. Mendelssohn, a coastal plant ecologist at Louisiana State University, said the wetlands data so far is good news for fishermen who depend on the ecosystem to produce shrimp, menhaden and other seafood.

“My gut feeling, based on what I have seen, based on the recovery people have observed, I doubt that the impact to the wetlands is going to create a significant problem for our coastal fisheries,” Mendelssohn said.

Good news indeed, but let us not let our guard down. Just because the worst case may have been avoided doesn’t mean the risk of a worst case isn’t still there. The industry will need to remain diligent in identifying and addressing root causes, and in coming up with better response plans. (I previously noted the $1 billion investment in a containment system to mitigate against this possibility in the future: New Oil Spill Containment System to Protect Gulf of Mexico Planned by Major Oil Companies).

Signs of Higher Prices

On the other hand, I have maintained from the beginning that beyond the environmental impact, there would be a very real impact on future oil supplies as a result of this incident. The International Energy Agency has now estimated that the loss in 2011 may be 100,000 barrels per day:

IEA Raises Gulf of Mexico Output Loss to 100,000 Barrels a Day

Aug. 11 (Bloomberg) — The International Energy Agency raised its forecast for Gulf of Mexico oil production loss to as much as 100,000 barrels a day in 2011 because of BP Plc’s crude spill and subsequent deepwater drilling ban.

The Macondo spill will curb Gulf output by 60,000 barrels a day this year, Paris-based IEA said today in its monthly report. The agency has doubled its estimate from last month, when it also said the reduction may increase to 100,000 barrels to 300,000 barrels a day in 2015.

With oil supplies still tight, this will put additional pressure on prices. The likelihood that we will continue into the Long Recession scenario remains high in my view.

The following is a guest essay by Kevin Kane. Kevin is the author of the Energy Fanatic Blog.

Oil Prices, Recession-Depression, and Investment

Low Oil Prices Foster Future Oil Price Peaks

By Kevin Kane

As the global economy stalls, some economists including Paul Krugman argue that unless governments take action now, we risk slipping into a period of recession, or possibly even depression. If the world economy does double dip, ceteris paribus, oil prices will decrease following weak consumer demand. Should this double dip turn into a recession, or even worse, a depression, its long term impacts on oil supply additions and renewable energy innovation will be considerably negative.

Low oil prices are in general bad for consumers over the long run, particularly in a globalizing economy that has proven itself capable of expanding faster than the oil industry can bring on new additions to daily oil production capacity. We could sum this phenomenon up with the statement, “Low oil prices today are bad for consumers tomorrow.” This is true because,

(1)  A near-perfect linear relationship exists between oil prices and supply-addition investment—new supplies are added only when companies invest in discovering and developing wells with income gained from the sale of produced oil. Thus, higher oil prices today help to create lower prices tomorrow (See the Figure below that utilizes FRS Data); and,

(2)  Low oil prices result in governments and energy companies cutting energy R&D investment, which slows technological breakthroughs, diversification from oil, and the climb over the learning curve for costly substitutes.



Low Oil Prices Foster Future Oil Price Peaks

If we enter a recession and economic output declines, oil prices will follow along with investments in supply-additions and energy R&D. When prices increase again, our ability to offset these price movements with new supplies or substitutes will be limited—such a scenario portends a repeat of exactly what happened from the mid-1980s to August 2008.

Although the relationship between oil prices and future supplies proves to be straight forward, we need to apply something more technical other than a scatter plot to identify the causal relationship between oil price changes and investments in energy R&D

The Oil Price and R&D Connection: From Renewable to Nuclear Power

Oil prices directly influence changes in investment for government R&D in fossil fuel technology, nuclear power, batteries and energy storage, renewable energy, and efficiency technology. This is an empirical and causal reality extrapolated from multiple panel regression analysis in my thesis titled “Oil Cross-Price Elasticity of Energy R&D Demand: A 12-Country Panel Analysis.” This thesis shows that despite all the rhetoric, policy papers, institutions, and promises, government investment in energy R&D reflects shot-term erratic political behavior rather than keen and calculating long-term energy security strategies.

Even more alarming, statistical results in aforementioned thesis suggest that we are not learning from the past. With the exception of a few cases of sustained disinvestment, governments generally continue to change energy R&D investment with oil price fluctuations despite over-investment and under-investment experiences in the 1980s and 1990s, respectively.

If economic globalization continues as it has in the past, governments need to make a change by benchmarking their energy R&D investment levels on energy security goals rather than short-term market movements, perhaps by creating a more stable measure than oil price—changes in primary consumption demand serves as one example.

Whether we would like to substitute fossil fuels or use innovation to increase the supply of oil, whatever the timeline, a recession or depression scenario will slow this process, if not bring it to a halt. Unless governments break the pattern of benchmarking energy R&D investment levels to oil prices changes, history portends that a double-dip will have terrible implications for future energy security and the environment.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev-D) insisted that Americans will not pay for the Gulf of Mexico oil spill as he discussed the barrel tax hike.

In the wake of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, Congress is preparing to increase its barrel tax on oil by 400% – to 32 cents a barrel – to create a fund to finance cleanup from oil spills.  The tax would apply to both foreign and domestically produced oil. Revenue would be managed by the Coast Guard to be used if crises like the catastrophic spill off the Louisiana coast were to reoccur.

Regarding costs for cleaning up the April 20 spill in the Gulf of Mexico, President Barack Obama and congressional leaders have said they expect BP to foot the bill.

“Taxpayers will not pick up the tab,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev), said Monday.

Last week, BP executives told Congress they would pay all legitimate claims for damages.

BP estimates its costs for responding to the spill, deemed by many as the worst oil spill in American history, at about $760 million.

If the bill passes, the increase is expected to raise $11 billion over the next ten years. The Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund presently has about $1.5 billion available.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) has not taken a position on the tax increase, though a spokeswoman said Congress should study the ramifications before acting, according to the Associated Press.

“We understand we need to have an insurance policy in order to cover people in the event of a spill,” said API spokeswoman, Cathy Landry. “At the same time we need to have a vital oil and gas industry.”

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce criticizes the proposed tax increase as hastily put together, without adequate study. The proposed tax hike was raised on Thursday, despite the absence of any  congressional hearings to analyze its impact.

“I have seen no analysis on how this would impact energy security, how this would impact domestic production, how this would impact the overall economics in the country,” said Christopher Guith, vice president of the chamber’s energy institute. “There hasn’t been any sort of deliberation on this.”

Guith claimed that the tax could be passed on to consumers, if the oil industry manages to raise gas prices in response to a tax increase.

Guith further alleges that the tax hike is designed to offset budget increases unrelated to oil that are part of the bill.  The overall bill includes one-year extensions of several tax breaks that expired in 2009 which could add up to $134 billion to the federal deficit.

The impact on the deficit could make it difficult for the bill to pass.

Bill proponents hope to complete their work by the end of the week before Congress begins a week-long break. On Monday, the White House issued a statement supporting the bill.

The Department of Interior announced yesterday that they intend to commission a worldwide study to ensure that the United States is not undercharging private companies for the rights to drill on Federal property for oil and natural gases.

“This study will provide some common-sense grounds for comparison as we evaluate our royalty rates and our oil and gas fiscal policies in the context of global markets,” said Bob Abbey, director of Interior’s Bureau of Land Management.

“The Administration is committed to ensuring that taxpayers receive a fair return from mineral production on their lands,” Abbey added.

Presently, the United States charges a 12.5% royalty for extracting fuel from Federal land and up to 18.75% for offshore drilling.  If the study finds that other governments are charging a more significant rate, the US may bump its royalty rates closer toward 20%.

“The results of this study will enable the Department to ensure that its leasing policies are providing the public a fair return on federally-owned oil and gas resources, while balancing other objectives, including production and environmental stewardship,” states Interior’s announcement of the study.

Industry executives counter that this is a poor time to consider increasing royalty rates given the the current economic climate.  “The more that royalty rates are increased, the more difficult it is going to be to produce American energy,” said Dan Naatz, vice president for federal resources and political affairs with the Independent Petroleum Association of America, according to The Hill.

OPEC: give us certainty to invest

You only get a small preview of the following story, but I found the bit that is accessible to be pretty humorous:

OPEC’S producers need greater certainty over long-term oil demand if they are to justify upstream investments to bring new production capacity on stream, says the group’s secretary-general. In an interview with Petroleum Economist, Abdalla El-Badri reiterated Opec’s message that greater clarity about demand is necessary if the world expects Opec’s exporters to continue investing in new output capacity.

Uncertainty over demand yields a startling gap in the group’s 10-year outlook. Opec says demand for its crude in 2020 could reach 37m barrels a day (b/d) – up from 28.8m b/d now – or remain almost flat, reaching just 29m b/d.

It’s a dilemma, because the additional investment needed to meet the higher figure amounts to $250bn, says El-Badri. “We could use that money somewhere else; in our infrastructure or for the welfare of our people.

Sorry, but that’s just not the way the world works. All businesses would like some certainty about demand. If GM had some certainty about demand, they would never have had to declare bankruptcy. They could have just built the cars that would be demanded. But the best you can do is try to estimate where demand will end up, and make your decisions accordingly.

However, I will give some free advice. I don’t believe the world will be able to build out enough crude oil capacity to keep up with demand. (Even if demand remains flat, new capacity has to come online to compensate for depleting fields). I don’t believe biofuels can scale up enough to displace more than a small fraction of our oil consumption. I believe demand from China and India will continue to grow. I believe that oil production will soon peak (if it hasn’t already). And I believe that a lot of projects have already been delayed or canceled, increasing the likelihood of a return of supply/demand imbalances within a few years. If my musings are correct, upward pressure will continue to be the trend in oil prices, and countries that have export capacity will make a lot of money.

So nobody is going to give you certainty on demand (in fact, most people are likely to be appalled at the idea), but if it were me I would make the investments in capacity. Even though many countries will continue to attempt to migrate away from oil, demand for oil will remain strong for many years to come.

Last year I saw a presentation that projected very strong growth in wood pellet shipments from Canada and the U.S. into Europe. My first thought was “That doesn’t sound very efficient. Why don’t we just use those here in North America?”

It didn’t take very long for me to find out the answer to that. It is because wood pellets are much more expensive than natural gas in North America. On top of that it takes more effort to use wood for energy than it does natural gas. That combination means that wood has a tough time competing with natural gas in North America.

When I was looking into that issue, I compiled a list of the price for various energy types on an energy equivalent basis. The price is as current as possible unless noted. I have converted everything into $/million BTU (MMBTU), and the sources are listed below.

My preference is to use EIA data over NYMEX data because the former is an archived, fixed number. I have included energy for heating and for various transportation options. For comparison I also included the cost of electricity and the cost of the ethanol subsidy/MMBTU of ethanol produced.

Current Energy Prices per Million BTU

Powder River Basin Coal – $0.56
Northern Appalachia Coal – $2.08
Natural gas – $5.67
Ethanol subsidy – $5.92
Petroleum – $13.56
Propane – $13.92
#2 Heating Oil – $15.33
Jet fuel – $16.01
Diesel – $16.21
Gasoline – $18.16
Wood pellets – $18.57
Ethanol – $24.74
Electricity – $34.03

Observations

It isn’t difficult then to see why wood pellets have a difficult market in the U.S. For people with access to natural gas, they are going to prefer the lower price and convenience of natural gas over wood. For Europe, their natural gas supplies aren’t nearly as secure, so they have more incentive to favor wood as an option.

The cost of the ethanol subsidy is interesting. We pay more for the ethanol subsidy than natural gas costs. However, if you consider that we are paying a subsidy on a per gallon basis – and a large fraction of that gallon of ethanol is fossil fuel-derived, the subsidy for the renewable component is really high.

For instance, if we consider a generous energy return on ethanol of 1.5 BTUs out per BTU in, that means the renewable component per gallon is only 1/3rd of a gallon. (An energy return of 1.5 indicates that it took 1 BTU of fossil fuel to produce 1.5 BTU of ethanol; hence the renewable component in that case is 1/3rd). That means that the subsidy on simply the renewable component is actually three times as high – $17.76/MMBTU. Bear in mind that this is only the subsidy; the consumer then has to pay $24.74/MMBTU for the ethanol itself.

Sources for Data

Petroleum – $13.56 (EIA World Average Price for 1/08/2010)
Northern Appalachia Coal – $2.08 (EIA Average Weekly Spot for 1/08/10)
Powder River Basin Coal – $0.56 (EIA Average Weekly Spot for 1/08/10)
Propane – $13.92 (EIA Mont Belvieu, TX Spot Price for 1/12/2010)
Natural gas – $5.67 (NYMEX contract for February 2010)
#2 Heating Oil – $15.33 (EIA New York Harbor Price for 1/12/2010)
Gasoline – $18.16 (EIA New York Harbor Price for 1/12/2010)
Diesel – $16.21 (EIA #2 Low Sulfur New York Harbor for 1/08/2010)
Jet fuel – (EIA New York Harbor for 1/12/2010)
Ethanol – $24.74 (NYMEX Spot for February 2010)
Wood pellets – $18.57 (Typical Wood Pellet Price for 1/12/2010)
Electricity – $34.03 (EIA Average Retail Price to Consumers for 2009)

Conversion factors

Petroleum – 138,000 BTU/gal
Gasoline – 115,000 BTU/gal
Diesel – 131,000 BTU/gal
Ethanol – 76,000 BTU/gal
Heating oil 138,000 BTU/gal
Jet fuel – 135,000 BTU/gal
Propane – 91,500 BTU/gal
Northern Appalachia Coal – 13,000 BTU/lb
Powder River Basin Coal – 8,800 BTU/lb
Wood pellets – 7,000 BTU/lb
Electricity – 3,412 BTU/kWh

I am closing in on the 4th anniversary of R-Squared. This essay is my 895th. Based on recent trends, 2010 should bring the one millionth viewer here as well as the one thousandth essay.

I had no high hopes for the blog when I started it. As I told a friend at the time, I looked at it as more like a place to archive some of the research I was doing. My thinking was that there are a million blogs out there, and it would be hard to differentiate mine from the others.

On the other hand, there weren’t a lot of energy-themed blogs covering the specific issues I was looking at. I knew because I was trying to do research on some topics, and ran into a wall of misinformation. So, I would write the stories, mainly for my own reference, until I ran out of things to write about. But on the topic of energy, I would soon find that it is hard to run out of things to write about.

I remember in the beginning that I would get 1 or 2 viewers a day. That changed pretty quickly after Andrew Leonard at Salon linked to one of my ethanol essays. From then on, the number of viewers increased. Shortly after that, one of my essays ended up in the #1 slot on the first page of Reddit. That was only a few months in, and 5,000 viewers linked in from Reddit in a single day.

Of course I have learned a lot since starting the blog. My breadth of knowledge across the energy sector is much greater now than in the beginning. Even so, energy is a huge field, and if I tried to cover all of it the coverage would necessarily be superficial. This is one reason you don’t see more stories here on wind and solar; they are not my core area of expertise so they don’t get a great deal of coverage.

In no particular order, here are some of the other lessons I have learned since starting the blog.

1. Choose my words carefully

I remember this lesson well. The blog readership had grown quite a bit, but I did not really appreciate the diversity of the audience. At that time I was still prone to write blistering, no holds barred critiques of energy companies making outrageous claims. I had written a bit about Coskata, and I felt like their claims were dubious. But then I finally looked a bit deeper, and I wrote Coskata: Dead Man Walking.

Of course I was being flippant with the title, but hey, it’s only my blog. It’s not like I am writing a news story. People know it is my opinion, and thus I can say pretty much what I think. Right?

Then the floodgates opened. I got contacted by the media. I got contacted by investors. I got contacted by the DOE. I even got contacted by Coskata. With the exception of the last one, the others all wanted to know “Are their claims really invalid?” Of course Coskata wanted to let me know that their claims were valid.

But the episode was a turning point in the way I write. I can remember at the time doing a media interview on the story, thinking “Holy Cow! I have to be more careful with my phrasing in the future. That was unnecessarily antagonistic and there are apparently a lot of people reading this stuff.”

Since then, I have tried to exercise more caution. I still maintain that there is no way that Coskata can make ethanol for $1/gallon, but I have to keep in mind that if I write an overly critical story of a company it could influence some investors which could influence the fortunes of the company. (A long shot, but something I have to keep in mind). Thus, I am potentially impacting people’s livelihood with what I write, and as such I have a duty to be very sure about my statements before I make them. No more flippancy or unnecessary antagonism.

2. Don’t make it personal

A friend once said that it is OK to disagree, but you don’t have to be disagreeable. I try to keep this in mind as I debate and engage people. Check the personal stuff and the ad homs at the door. Let’s debate the data, and if the data dictate that my position should move, then it shall move.

3. Not everyone cares about the data

I have learned a lot about how people behave. I have learned that not everyone is interested in objectivity; some are only interested in a very specific viewpoint. In these cases, inconvenient data are either to be rejected outright (That’s absurd!) or discredited (the guy who did the research has a cousin who works for ExxonMobil; thus the study is no good).

Dealing with people like this is never a fair fight, because I am interested in looking at their data. They are only interested in looking at mine if it supports their point of view. Otherwise, they go into the mode of defense attorney attempting to exonerate their client.

4. I love to write

That should be obvious, given that for the past 4 years I have averaged 4.5 essays per week. People often ask “Where do you find the time?” I find the time the same place people find the time to watch TV or play video games (and I do some of that as well, but not so much TV). The fact is that I can type out what’s in my head very quickly. My routine is that I wake up early, read through the latest energy headlines, and write if I see something that I want to comment on. I spend less than an hour on the average essay, so it is not a major time commitment each week. Answering e-mails is a different story, which is why my e-mail address disappeared from the front page.

5. I don’t write well to deadlines

I am prolific when the subject is wide open and there is no schedule involved. When I am writing an article for a website or a publisher, and there is a specific deadline involved, I find that it is much harder to get motivated. There is a different dynamic involved in waking up, seeing a story of interest, and making a post on it than there is if the subject is defined and I have a week to fill in the details.

I have been asked twice about my interest in writing a book, but it would take me 10 times as long to do a book as it would to do enough essays to fill a book. So right now I do a book chapter now and then (I have three that are either published or in process, with another two due next year) and in the back of my mind I hope eventually to pull those chapters together as the basis of a book. But to just sit down and start writing a book? Not at this point in my life.

6. Trying to predict which essays will get a lot of hits is futile

I found out early on that I could spend 3 hours on an essay, pepper it with references and links, and yet another that I spent 10 minutes on may get 5 times as many hits. The essay that ended up on the front page of Reddit was a puzzle to me. I had under 20 essays under my belt at that time, and in fact it was well after I published it that it claimed the top spot on Reddit. But I thought I had written essays that would have been much more deserving. To this day I am puzzled as to why that one made it to the top, and not some others that I think are much better. Here it is: Fuel Efficiency and Lessons from Europe. (Another one claimed the top spot a year or so later, but I don’t even remember which one it was).

In fact, probably the most read essay in the history of this blog is one that I wrote just a couple of months ago. I buried it on the 2nd page of my blog and locked the comments on it. It was off-topic and I didn’t want regular readers to be distracted by it, but I wanted to document something. It was again picked up by Reddit and a number of media outlets, and was read almost 20,000 times in under two weeks. It hasn’t fallen out of the Top 10 since I published it. For the curious, here is that one: Exposing a Two-Bit Scammer. I must warn you that it has zero to do with energy, and should only be read if you are bored and have nothing else to do.

7. Keep an open mind

I pride myself on my objectivity. I consider it a critical aspect of my job and my writing. But I have to constantly guard against slipping into a bunker with a particular ideology, defending against all outsiders. I recognized early on in my blog that most of my essays were anti-ethanol, and that I was starting to come across as an ethanol foe. But that is not a universal truth. I am against aspects of our ethanol policy, and in speaking out against those I sometimes appear to be anti-ethanol without qualification.

But that certainly isn’t the case. I see ethanol as I see other fuels. There are trade-offs. There are vested interests. Some will gain and others will lose. But with this, as with any position, the question I try to keep in mind is “What would cause you to shift your viewpoint?” If the answer to that is “Nothing” then you are truly in the realm of dogma and there is no point discussing data. As I stated earlier, it wouldn’t be a fair debate. But I try to always have an answer to that question in mind. For ethanol, I attempted to answer that question very early on: Improving the Prospects for Grain Ethanol

8. Sometimes you are going to make enemies

I don’t like to make enemies, but when you are speaking out against vested interests you are going to make them. Reasonable people sometimes disagree, but vested interests aren’t necessarily reasonable and their disagreements can quickly become personal. A corn farmer in Iowa isn’t necessarily interested in data that argues against more corn production. (In fact, I got a death ‘wish’ from a corn farmer once; one of maybe half a dozen threats/wishes I have received).

So if you have convictions, even if they are data-based, you are going to make some enemies if you speak out on them. This is especially true when dealing with vested interests. It is simply impossible to please everyone.

9. Don’t force content

While I have written a lot of essays over the past four years, I have had some periods of time in which I didn’t really have anything topical to put out there for a week or more. That has led me at times to post guest essays or 3rd party content that really weren’t up to the standards I have set for this blog. Worse, I have been occasionally guilty of that myself by quickly throwing something together and publishing it. I can avoid this by refusing to listen to the inner voice that says “It’s been a week. You really need to publish something.” If I maintain discipline, then I will only post when there is something worth posting, even if that means I don’t put anything up for a month.

10. The spam bots are getting much better

It won’t be long before I have to start locking comments on the essays that scroll off of the first page. The spam bots – those that write something like “Great blog” with a link to some off-topic business – have gotten much better at breaking through the word verification than they were even a year ago. I get an e-mail of every single comment posted, so I am able to catch and delete all spam, but it is taking more of my time every day.

11. I learn a lot from the comments

The blog would not have continued had it not been for so much good feedback that I received. I find myself learning an awful lot from reading comments. Often, it is through the comments that I first learn of a new development or a new research paper.  The comments also frequently force me to reevaluate my positions, which is something I value greatly.

12. Self-link to my previous essays

Some people may have noticed that I almost always link each essay back to a previous essay. That isn’t so much about self-promotion as it is about maintaining a connection when others pick up and republish an essay. I have given permission to many other websites to republish content as long as there is a note that indicates the origin of the essay. Still, some websites will grab essays and republish content as their own. By putting links in, readers can be linked back here, and since I have a StatCounter that indicates where visitors came from, I can spot the websites that are republishing content as their own.

13. There is no money in this

If I was trying to make a living at this, I would have to move to one of those countries where you can live on $2 a day. Of course I am not doing this for money, nor have I ever tried to write in a way that would maximize ad revenue.  If I was trying to write for a living, I would have picked a different topic, like Hollywood Gossip. Of course then I would have to start watching TV, and who has time for that?

On the other hand, there have been a lot of opportunities that have arisen as a result of the blog. I have had numerous job offers/inquiries since I started this, I have been asked to write for books and magazines, and I have given media interviews and made presentations. This increases the audience that I can reach.

14. People’s interest in energy goes up and down with the price of oil

It is really hard to get people engaged on energy unless prices are climbing. To this day, the query that most frequently brings readers in for the first time is “Why are oil/gas prices rising?” If prices aren’t rising, people don’t care and there isn’t much interest in energy policy. But we have lived through interesting times since I started the blog; prices steadily climbing for the most part. When they level off, the number of readers falls.

So that’s a bit of what I have learned, and hopefully those lessons have improved the quality of the essays over the past four years. May we continue to live during interesting times, so there will be lots of new stories to report on.

Happy New Year to everyone.

1. Volatility in the oil markets

My top choice for this year is the same as my top choice from last year. While not as dramatic as last year’s action when oil prices ran from $100 to $147 and then collapsed back to $30, oil prices still more than doubled from where they began 2009. That happened without the benefit of an economic recovery, so I continue to wonder how long it will take to come out of recession when oil prices are at recession-inducing levels. Further, coming out of recession will spur demand, which will keep upward pressure on oil prices. That’s why I say we may be in The Long Recession.

2. The year of natural gas

This could have easily been my top story, because there were so many natural gas-related stories this year. There were stories of shale gas in such abundance that it would make peak oil irrelevant, stories of shale gas skeptics, and stories of big companies making major investments into converting their fleets to natural gas.

Whether the abundance ultimately pans out, the appearance of abundance is certainly helping to keep a lid on natural gas prices. By failing to keep up with rising oil prices, an unprecedented oil price/natural gas price ratio developed. If you look at prices on the NYMEX in the years ahead, the markets are anticipating that this ratio will continue to be high. And as I write this, you can pick up a natural gas contract in 2019 for under $5/MMBtu.

3. U.S. demand for oil continues to decline

As crude oil prices skyrocketed in 2008, demand for crude oil and petroleum products fell from 20.7 million barrels per day in 2007 to 19.5 million bpd in 2008 (Source: EIA). Through September 2009, year-to-date demand is averaging 18.6 million bpd – the lowest level since 1997. Globally, demand was on a downward trend as well, but at a less dramatic pace partially due to demand growth in both China and India.

4. Shifting fortunes for refiners

The Jamnagar Refinery Complex in India became the biggest in the world, China brought several new refineries online, and several U.S. refiners shut down facilities. This is a trend that I expect to continue as refining moves closer to the source of the crude oil and to cheap labor. This does not bode well for a U.S. refining industry with a capacity to refine 17.7 million barrels per day when total North American production is only 10.5 million bpd (crude plus condensate).

5. China

China was everywhere in 2009. They were making deals to develop oil fields in Iraq, signing contracts with Hugo Chavez, and they got into a bidding war with ExxonMobil in Ghana. My own opinion is that China will be the single-biggest driver of oil prices over at least the next 5-10 years.

6. U.S. oil companies losing access to reserves

As China increases their global presence in the oil markets, one casualty has been U.S. access to reserves. Shut out of Iraq during the recent oil field auctions there, U.S. oil companies continue to lose ground against the major national oil companies. But no worries. Many of my friends e-mailed to tell me that the Bakken has enough crude to fuel the U.S. for the next 41 years…

7. EU slaps tariffs on U.S. biodiesel

With the aid of generous government subsidies, U.S. biodiesel producers had been able to put their product into the EU for cheaper than local producers could make it. The EU put the brakes on this practice by imposing five-year tariffs on U.S. biodiesel – a big blow to U.S. biodiesel producers.

8. Big Oil buys Big Ethanol

I find it amusing when people suggest that the ethanol industry is a threat to the oil industry. I don’t think those people appreciate the difference in the scale of the two industries.

As I have argued many times before, the oil industry could easily buy up all of the assets of ethanol producers if they thought the business outlook for ethanol was good. It would make sense that the first to take an interest would be the pure refiners, because they are the ones with the most to lose from ethanol mandates. They already have to buy their feedstock (oil), so if they make ethanol they just buy a different feedstock, corn, and they get to sell a mandated product.

In February, Valero became the first major refiner to buy up assets of an ethanol company; bankrupt ethanol producer Verasun. Following the Valero purchase, Sunoco picked up the assets of another bankrupt ethanol company. If ExxonMobil ever decides to get involved, they could buy out the entire industry.

9. The climate wars heat up

There were several big climate-related stories in the news this year, so I decided to lump them all into a single category. First was the EPA decision to declare CO2 a pollutant that endangers public health, opening the door for regulation of CO2 for the first time in the U.S.

Then came Climategate, which gave the skeptics even more reason to be skeptical. A number of people have suggested to me that this story will just fade away, but I don’t think so. This is one that the skeptics can rally around for years to come. The number of Americans who believe that humans are causing climate change was already on the decline, and the injection of Climategate into the issue will make it that much harder to get any meaningful legislation passed.

Closing out the year was the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. All I can say is that I expected a circus, and we got a circus. It just goes to show the difficulty of getting countries to agree on issues when the stakes are high and the issues complex. Just wait until they try to get together to figure out a plan for peak oil mitigation.

10. Exxon buys XTO for $41 billion

In a move that signaled ExxonMobil’s expectation that the future for shale gas is promising, XOM shelled out $41 billion for shale gas specialist XTO. The deal means XOM is picking up XTO’s proved reserves for around $3 per thousand cubic feet, which is less than half of what ConocoPhillips paid for the reserves of Burlington Resources in 2005.

Honorable Mention

There were a number of stories that I considered putting in my Top 10, and some of these stories will likely end up on other Top 10 lists. A few of the stories that almost made the final cut:

The IEA puts a date on peak oil production

The statement they made was that barring any major new discoveries “the output of conventional oil will peak in 2020 if oil demand grows on a business-as-usual basis.”

AltaRock Energy Shuts Down

Turns out that deep geothermal, which the Obama administration had hoped “could be quickly tapped as a clean and almost limitless energy source” – triggers earthquakes. Who knew? I thought these were interesting comments from the story: “Some of these startup companies got out in front and convinced some venture capitalists that they were very close to commercial deployment” and “What we’ve discovered is that it’s harder to make those improvements than some people believed.” I am still waiting to see a bonafide success story from some of these VCs.

The biggest energy bill in history was passed

In total, $80 billion in the stimulus bill earmarked for energy was a big story, but I don’t know how much of that money was actually utilized.

The Pickens Plan derails

The website is still there, but the hype of 2008 turned into a big disappointment in 2009 after oil prices failed to remain high enough to make the project economical. Pickens lost about 2/3rds of his net worth as oil prices unwound, he took a beating in the press, and he announced in July that we would probably abandon the plan.

So what did I miss? And what are early predictions for 2010’s top stories? I think China’s moves are going to continue to make waves, there will be more delays (and excuses) from those attempting to produce fuel from algae and cellulose, and there will be little relief from oil prices.

Platts wants to know: the biggest oil stories of ‘09

They will publish the results shortly after Christmas. Scanning the list and comparing to my rough draft of the Top 10, I see one story that isn’t currently on my list that I missed: The Valero Foray into Ethanol. Other than that, all of the stories that I have tentatively in my Top 10 are on their list except for two (and I bet people who take the survey will suggest both of them).

I will post my list prior to Christmas, and hope that we don’t see another big year end story like the XOM acquisition of XTO. That is a Top 10 story that came in right at the end of the year. Here is how I ranked the stories Platts had listed, but this was off the top of my head and very subjective. I may decide later on that #3 should really be #8, or that something that didn’t make the list should really be on there. My Top 10 will be a bit different because I have combined some topics that they treated separately.

1. Prices (basis WTI) comes roaring back to the $80 level after almost hitting $30
2. Full-year decline in demand heads toward biggest drop since 1981
3. Natural gas-crude spread in US blows out to unprecedented levels
4. Refinery woes: Valero shuts Delaware City , Sunoco shuts Eagle Point, Repsol shuts Cartegena, Japan cutbacks underway (RR: related to Reliance news)
5. Valero makes big foray into ethanol with multiple ethanol plant purchases; Sunoco follows on smaller scale
6. EU slaps duties on US sales of biodiesel into Europe
7. OPEC holds to its 24.845 million b/d ceiling all year
8. US EPA rules greenhouses gases are a threat to public health, plans on using authority to regulate them
9. ExxonMobil gets into bidding war with Chinese, others over Ghana stake (RR: more for what it signals for the future).
10. Exxon buys XTO for $41 billion